and the OSCAR goes to…

My favorite season has always been award season. I love the red carpet looks. I love the little snippets they play while announcing the nominees. I love the discourse that follows days after a show. But my favorite part of award season is my mom. Growing up we would perch in front of our living room TV for every single award show from the Golden Globes to the BET Awards. We would rank our favorite red carpet looks and share our disappointments for who won or lost. Plus, since award shows always fell on a Sunday or Monday, it was the only time I got to stay up late on a school night, so that was an added perk. After graduating high school, we will text throughout award shows like nothing changed. It’s a tradition I hope never dies. 

I think this is why I chose the major I did. I don’t know if y’all know this but I actually graduated with a degree in Cinema & Television Arts. I know, it’s shocking since I only ever talk about fashion on this blog. But yeah I’m super qualified for today’s post. The formal award season is about to come to a close with the Academy Awards just two short weeks away. What better way to celebrate than by letting y’all in on a Mother-Daughter tradition by sharing my 2024 Oscar Predictions. I calculated these predictions with the scientific formula of my own personal opinions. Feel free to argue in the non-existent comment section at the bottom of this post. So without further ado, let’s get into it. 

*Editor’s note: I will also take into account what has won thus far. 

There are two categories: Who I Think Will Win vs. Who I Want to Win. I will also only be covering the Big Five categories: Best Director, Screenplay, Actor, Actress, and Picture. For some categories, who I want to win can be the same as who I think will win, since the Academy can get it right… sometimes. I might even throw in some people I think were snubbed. 

Best Director

JUSTINE TRIET (Anatomy of a Fall); MARTIN SCORSESE (Killers of the Flower Moon); CHRISTOPHER NOLAN (Oppenheimer); YORGOS LANTHIMOS (Poor Things); JONATHAN GLAZER (The Zone of Interest)

WHO I WANT - I DON’T CARE

WHO I THINK - CHRISTOPHER NOLAN

Listen, I'm going to be completely honest here. There is no one in this category that I am truly rallying for. With the absence of Celine Song, Alexander Payne, and most notably, Greta Gerwig, the Best Director race is the one that I am least excited about this year. Even though, a record breaking number of, three female directors were nominated for picture, only one of them (Justine Triet) was nominated in the Best Director category. The award will most likely go to Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer, which surprisingly, will be his first Oscar. He won a Golden Globe and BAFTA for his direction, and is a favorite to win at the Oscars. 

Best Screenplay

Adapted: AMERICAN FICTION (Cord Jefferson); BARBIE (Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach); OPPENHEIMER (Christopher Nolan); POOR THINGS (Tony McNamara); THE ZONE OF INTEREST (Jonathan Glazer)

WHO I WANT - AMERICAN FICTION

WHO I THINK - AMERICAN FICTION

“But Kayla, what about Barbie?” I want to be clear: I am not a Barbie anti. Greta Gerwig is one of my favorite directors and Barbie was one of my favorite movies last year. It was fun. It was Girl. It was a cultural moment. But do I think it is Academy award winning material? It’s a really tough competition. Barbie does not belong in this category, not because it was poorly written, it just doesn’t make any sense for this movie to be considered “adapted.” I believe the Academy is doing a disservice to Greta by putting her up against many of the projected favorites to win big. 

People may think Oppenheimer has this one in the bag, but it has yet to win a screenplay award at any of the prior ceremonies. I think dark horse American Fiction is going to take home the prize. Cord Jefferson won the BAFTA for this category, and the film also had a big night at the Spirit Awards. It’s also my pick for the award because as Issa Rae famously said, “I’m rooting for everybody black.” On top of that, I think this film is severely underrated and I love an underdog story. 

Original: ANATOMY OF A FALL (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari); THE HOLDOVERS (David Hemingson); MAESTRO (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer); MAY DECEMBER (Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik); PAST LIVES (Celine Song)

WHO I WANT - PAST LIVES

WHO I THINK - ANATOMY OF A FALL

If I have spoken to you in the last few weeks about movies, you know I loved Past Lives. This movie ruined me in the best way possible and made me rethink my entire perspective on love. It’s a quiet, unassuming film that just feels. The fact that it’s been shutout from the major award shows thus far infuriates me. I was ecstatic when the film finally got its due diligence at the Independent Spirit Awards where it won Best Picture, as well Best Director for Celine Song. 

While I am gunning for a Past Lives win at the Academy Awards, I fear this category is going to go to Anatomy of a Fall. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari have been racking up awards in the category all season. I would be shocked if it doesn’t win an Oscar as well. I have yet to see this movie, so maybe my mind will be changed once I spend that $5.99 rental fee, but I’m still rooting for Past Lives. 

*Honorable mention for The Holdovers*

Best Actor

BRADLEY COOPER (Maestro); COLMAN DOMINGO (Rustin); PAUL GIAMATTI (The Holdovers); CILLIAN MURPHY (Oppenheimer); JEFFREY WRIGHT (American Fiction)

WHO I WANT - COLMAN DOMINGO or PAUL GIAMATTI

WHO I THINK - CILLIAN MURPHY

As mentioned before, what Issa Rae said. I’m kidding, I’m kidding (*laughs nervously*). But in all seriousness, I think Colman Domingo deserves an award for everything he is. Not only is he a brilliant actor, he also seems to be incredibly down to earth and that makes an actor so special to me. Also, he’s only the second openly gay man to be nominated in this category (Ian McKellen was the first back in 1999). For as many LGBTQ+ centered stories that have been nominated for Oscars, it’s crazy that an openly gay man has never won this award. I think the Academy owes it to the community. 

My second pick actually has a fighting chance to win. Paul Giamatti, who scarred me in Big Fat Liar, was excellent in The Holdovers. He won the Golden Globe for his role in the comedy category, but his biggest challenge will be Cillian Murphy, the projected front runner. If it’s not obvious already, Oppenheimer is expected to win big, so it would only make sense for the man himself to take home the award. However, some media outlets think Giamatti might be the tortoise in this race. 

Best Actress

ANNETTE BENING (Nyad); LILY GLADSTONE (Killers of the Flower Moon); SANDRA HÜLLER (Anatomy of a Fall); CAREY MULLIGAN (Maestro); EMMA STONE (Poor Things)

WHO I WANT - LILY GLADSTONE

WHO I THINK - EMMA STONE

This category I think is a toss up between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. The two both won a Golden Globe for their respective film, however they weren’t up against each other. Stone won the BAFTA, where Gladstone wasn’t even nominated. Gladstone won the SAG, where Stone gave a heartwarming reaction. Gladstone is the first Native actress to score a nod in this category, her win would make it a historic night and also it would be well deserved. However, Gladstone’s screentime might make it difficult for her to compete against Academy darling Emma Stone, who clearly carries the weight of Poor Things. Whichever woman wins I will be happy, but I’m really pulling for Lily Gladstone.

Best Picture

AMERICAN FICTION; ANATOMY OF A FALL; BARBIE; THE HOLDOVERS; KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON; MAESTRO; OPPENHEIMER; PAST LIVES; POOR THINGS; THE ZONE OF INTEREST 

WHO I WANT - AMERICANFICTIONTHEHOLDOVERSPASTLIVES

WHO I THINK - OPPENHEIMER

UMM. I had a little bit of trouble narrowing my choice down to one movie. These are my personal picks because they were my favorite movies of last year. Most people didn’t even include American Fiction in the “Best Picture” lineup pre-nomination announcement, and comedies don’t normally win. While I think Past Lives is a MASTERPIECE, I would be shocked if the first major award to recognize this would be the Oscars.  I think the only one that has a chance is The Holdovers, due to the constant recognition of Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph during this award season. Plus, the Academy is a sucker for a heart wrenching period piece, but not as much as they looooove a historical war piece. Which is why they will give to Oppenheimer. Another possible outcome would be Poor Things taking home the prize. Sorry to all my Barbie fans, realistically, I just don’t see it happening.

BONUS: Costume Design

JACQUELINE DURRAN (Barbie); JACQUELINE WEST (Killers of the Flower Moon); JANTY YATES and DAVE CROSSMAN (Napoleon); ELLEN MIROJNICK (Oppenheimer); HOLLY WADDINGTON (Poor Things)

WHO I WANT - BARBIE

WHO I THINK - POOR THINGS

I can’t let a blog post go by without talking fashion. So I thought it would be nice to throw in my predictions for Costume Design. When it comes to world building, Barbie should have these awards in the bag, and that most definitely includes costumes. Jacqueline Durran is no stranger to the Academy, having won the award twice for Anna Karenina and Little Women (2019). The looks in Barbie were spot on! Durran has a very high chance of taking home her third Oscar. However, part of me believes they’ll give the award to Poor Things. The outfits worn by Emma Stone’s “Bella Baxter” are wonderfully quirky and beautiful. Waddington does an excellent job of transforming the character from a childlike naif to a liberated woman. Plus, as I mentioned earlier, the Academy loves period pieces.

Who do you think will win big?

With Luv,

KK